The Sabres and Red Wings were linked as speculative trade partners earlier in the season, with Max Bultman of The Athletic suggesting at one point that Detroit may be interested in prying defenseman Bowen Byram away from Buffalo. It turns out there was some smoke to that fire, but center Dylan Cozens is the Sabres player that the Wings have expressed interest in acquiring, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet wrote Tuesday.
While most reports indicate the Sabres’ desired path forward is to stay the course despite currently ranking last in the Eastern Conference with a 15-21-5 record, that hasn’t stopped Cozens’ name from appearing in a fair amount of trade speculation through the first half of the season. Things haven’t gone well for the soon-to-be 24-year-old, whose point totals have steadily regressed since a career-best 31 goals and 68 points in 2022-23 that earned him a seven-year, $49.7MM extension.
Cozens is posting just 0.49 points per game in 2024-25, down from last year’s 0.59 mark and even further from that breakout year’s 0.84. He’s shooting 8.6% for eight goals through 41 games, adding 12 assists for 20 points and a team-worst -14 rating.
As our Gabriel Foley wrote last month, Buffalo’s poor record this season extends far past Cozens’ woes. Moving on from him would also risk continuing a trend of the Sabres moving on from still-developing players too soon, parting ways before they break out again on a new team.
If he were to be on the move, the Wings make a lot of sense. They have an old center corps for a supposedly still-rebuilding team, with top three pivots Dylan Larkin, Andrew Copp and J.T. Compher all between the ages of 28 and 30. Marco Kasper, 20, is well on his way to capturing a top-nine spot down the middle, but inserting Cozens there gives them an extended window to return to playoff relevance.
Despite the poor rating, possession play hasn’t been a huge issue for Cozens this season. His 50.6 CF% ranks 10th on the team at even strength, and while his -3.3 expected rating is in the middle of the pack, it’s far from the worst. His 165 shot attempts are fifth on the team, and he’s been the best Sabre at actually getting pucks through on net, converting 56.4% of his attempts into shots on goal.
Trading Cozens carries a fair amount of risk for both teams. There’s the chance of Buffalo cutting bait too early, but there’s also a financial risk for an acquiring team with five years left on his contract if his numbers don’t rebound to the 60-point range at a minimum.
But even at his current low point, Cozens is a middle-six upgrade for Detroit over Compher and Copp. Both are producing at worse point-per-game rates than Cozens, with far worse possession metrics, both raw and relative.
The Wings’ biggest issue this season is generating offense, especially high-danger chances. They only have 233 high-danger chances at 5-on-5 compared to the league average of 297, and they’re also only converting on 6.8% of those. Cozens should help with that to some degree.