The Buffalo Sabres are the NHL’s hottest team, owners of a ten-game winning streak. While numerous contributors have helped drive the club’s reversal in fortunes, one name standing out is that of Sabres forward Josh Doan, in the midst of his first season in Western New York. The Athletic’s Matthew Fairburn wrote yesterday that Doan “might be an ideal match” to play with Sabres star Tage Thompson long-term, and called Doan “a building block” for the club moving forward.
While the Sabres are surely extremely pleased with Doan’s play so far this season, a complication of his strong form is his status as a pending restricted free agent. Set to turn 24 on Feb. 1, Doan will have arbitration rights if he hits restricted free agency this summer. He has 11 goals and 26 points in 39 games this season, good for a 55-point 82-game scoring pace.
While most arbitration-eligible players don’t end up going through the actual arbitration process, the looming presence of an arbitrator can most definitely change the dynamics of a negotiation. Having the arbitration process as a possibility gives greater leverage to the player and his representatives compared to RFAs without arbitration rights, a factor that further strengthens Doan’s likelihood of receiving a hefty pay raise this upcoming summer.
Fairburn pointed to the seven-year, $6.5MM AAV contract extension signed by Matthew Coronato of the Calgary Flames as a deal that “feels like the floor for Doan” if he can maintain his current scoring pace.
The son of Shane Doan, the longtime face of the Arizona Coyotes franchise during his time in the NHL, Josh Doan has massively enhanced his league wide-stock this season. The Sabres acquired Doan alongside defenseman Michael Kesselring from the Utah Mammoth over the summer in exchange for young winger JJ Peterka.
While Peterka was seen as the best player at the time of the deal, Doan’s emergence may begin to change how that trade is viewed. Peterka has 29 points in 41 games in Utah, just three more points than Doan with two additional games played.
Given how the salary cap is likely to escalate even further beyond the projections of the next two years, getting Doan signed to a long-term extension in the mold of Coronato could be in the Sabres’ best financial interests. One could also argue that the Sabres would be wise to avoid making expensive, long-term financial commitments while the team is on such a torrid stretch, given the risk of overpaying for a hot hand.
But in Doan’s case, the fundamentals of what make him such a valuable NHL player appear to be quite stable, and there’s no reason to doubt his ability to be at the very least a very good middle-six winger in the long term.
Photos courtesy of Eric Hartline-Imagn Images