Two of the MAC’s three 2-0 teams clash at UB Stadium.
Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, October 19 at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN+
- Location: UB Stadium — Amherst, NY
- Spread: Western Michigan (-1)
- Over/under: 49.5
- All-time series: Western Michigan leads, 8-2
- Last meeting: Western Michigan 21, Buffalo 17 — October 2, 2021
- Current streak: Western Michigan, 3 (2016-21)
Setting the scene
Only three teams in the MAC feature perfect 2-0 conference records at this point in the season. One is Ohio, and the other two are set to battle it out at UB Stadium on Saturday. Western Michigan and Buffalo will clash for the opportunity to improve to 3-0 and have an inside track to the MAC Championship Game — which the Broncos haven’t experienced since 2016 and the Bulls since 2020.
The teams have only played 10 times, but Western Michigan and Buffalo will forever be associated for their 2017 meeting. The Broncos outlasted the Bulls, 71-68, in a seven-overtime thriller which featured a bevy of offensive records and a bizarre moment where Western Michigan tight end Donnie Ernsberger’s sister ran onto the field to celebrate a touchdown in the middle of the overtime affair. At the time, it tied the 2006 North Texas vs. FIU game for most overtimes in history and it set the FBS scoring record with 139 points — before the 2018 Texas A&M vs. LSU game topped it just 11 months later.
Western Michigan Broncos outlook
Photo by Jason Mowry/Getty Images
Western Michigan (3-3, 2-0 MAC) came back twice last week. The Broncos faced a 17-0 deficit to Akron in the second quarter, and before halftime, they already claimed a 24-17 advantage. Then they came back a second time — this time from a 5-hour, 5-minute weather delay. Western Michigan put on the finishing touches in MACtion After Dark to outlast the Zips 34-24 and improve to 2-0 in MAC play.
One thing is clear during the Broncos’ impressive start to their conference slate. The offense is one of the better units in the league. As a rushing attack, the Broncos are 45th in the FBS. Running back Jaden Nixon has taken over as the primary option and thrived in the role, ranking second in the conference with 505 rushing yards on the year. Then Jalen Buckley — a 1,000-yard rusher in 2023 — returned from injury last Saturday to post 103 yards on the Zips, proving the depth Western Michigan exhibits in its running back room.
The passing game is a weapon too, and it’s a blade getting sharper and sharper by the week. Quarterback Hayden Wolff flaunts an impressive ratio of nine touchdowns to two interceptions in 2024, and he leads the MAC with an efficient 69.4 completion rate. Two weeks ago against Ball State, he landed 26-of-29 attempts for 264 yards and three touchdowns, proving what the Broncos’ offense looks like at its peak.
It’s no coincidence Western Michigan’s passing attack reached a greater gear when First Team All-MAC wide receiver Kenneth Womack returned from a hand injury he suffered just days before the opener. Womack is already third on the team with 17 receptions, serving as a perfect complement to Anthony Sambucci. With all components of the offense clicking, the Broncos are racking up 39.5 points per game in MAC play, although their toughest defensive challenge awaits in Buffalo.
The season has been a mixed bag defensively. Western Michigan looked to have a championship-caliber defense in Week 1 at Wisconsin, preventing a single explosive play from the Badgers in a low-scoring defeat, but Broncos faithful are still awaiting for that unit to show up again. Since, Western Michigan allowed 56 to Ohio State, 31 to FCS Bethune-Cookman, and 42 to Ball State to rank 122nd in scoring defense.
Ramping up pressure on opposing quarterbacks is key. The Broncos only generate 1.7 sacks per game, and they’ll need to do a lot more feasting in the backfield to assist the pass defense. Defensive tackle Isaiah Green is the head of the snake with three sacks, and another standout defender to watch is outside linebacker Donald Willis, who has a team-high 48 tackles to go along with 4.5 tackles for loss this season.
Buffalo Bulls outlook
Denny Medley-Imagn Images
Buffalo (4-2, 2-0 MAC) is unblemished in MAC play, and the Bulls already took down two of the conference’s best. Buffalo first stunned Northern Illinois in the Huskies’ first game after beating Notre Dame to earn its second ranked win in program history, and last week, the Bulls rolled over Toledo 30-15 in a defensively dominant showing.
It’s only year one of the Pete Lembo era but Lembo has Buffalo looking like a contender, already shattering the team’s win total from 2023 at the 2024 season’s midway point. The secret sauce to the success is defense. The Bulls have a bona fide All-American candidate at the heart of the unit in inside linebacker Shaun Dolac who leads the entire FBS with 87 tackles. But Dolac is more than just a run stuffer — he can do it all on defense. His 11.5 tackles for loss are second in the nation, and he has three sacks and two interceptions with 65 return yards.
Opposing offenses aren’t just looking out for one Buffalo linebacker because Red Murdock — who shined when Dolac had a season-ending injury in 2023 — is the perfect partner-in-crime. Murdock boasts 66 tackles, 10 tackles for loss, and three forced fumbles on the unit. As suggested by the linebackers’ tackles for loss numbers, Buffalo attacks with a potent run defense. Teams average 3.8 yards per carry on the Bulls, and Toledo only managed 46 yards on 25 attempts last week. Kobe Stewart is also a stellar pass rusher at defensive end, and he picked up his fourth sack of the year to help the Bulls race to a 21-0 lead against the Rockets.
The passing defense hasn’t been as strong, but Buffalo is excellent at making teams one-dimensional. The Bulls lost cornerback Charles McCartherens due to injury vs. Toledo, and if he is unable to go, that could be a significant loss to the defensive backfield.
Buffalo’s offense isn’t typically explosive, but the Bulls found a rhythm last week through the run game. Al-Jay Henderson thrived with 142 rushing yards on a 7.9 average and the team tallied 230 as a unit. Even No. 1 wide receiver Victor Snow (team-high 216 receiving yards) gets in on the action in the backfield, punching in his first rushing touchdown last Saturday. With a mobile quarterback and a deep running back room, the run game is the clear focal point of Buffalo’s offense as the team hasn’t collected 200 passing yards in a single outing in 2024.
Still, quarterback CJ Ogbonna remains a positive due to the fact he takes care of the ball. He only has one interception through six starts and the Bulls only have five turnovers on the season to tie for 20th in the FBS. Complementary football is the name of the game, as defensive execution leads to offensive opportunity which leads to victory.
Prediction
This one seems to have the makings of a close game, but the theme of the 2024 MAC is — you never know. Buffalo is a hard team to get a read on, sandwiching its impressive Northern Illinois and Toledo victories by losing 47-3 to UConn. Western Michigan has been a bit more predictable, and the Broncos have only handily lost one game this year to Ohio State.
Buffalo’s defense prefers to keep things on the lower-scoring end. But Western Michigan’s balanced offense can move the ball enough to thrust the score into the 20s. A lower-scoring game certainly advantages Buffalo while a higher-scoring one prefers Western Michigan. In the end, the Broncos’ higher level of execution on offense will be the deciding factor.
Prediction: Western Michigan 24, Buffalo 20