The first pitch of the 2024 college baseball season is this Friday. Who has improved from 2023?
The 2024 college baseball season throws its first pitch on Friday with all 11 MAC teams scattered across the southern half of the country. The start of the baseball season is my favorite sign that spring and summer are coming after a long cold midwestern winter.
The MAC produced nine MLB draft picks in 2023, the earliest was lefty pitcher Joe Whitman from Kent State. He went 37th overall to the San Francisco Giants in the second compensatory round. The top players could end up in your favorite MLB team’s farm system.
The MAC is a one-bid conference for the national tournament in June. Earning a place in that tournament is determined by winning the conference tournament, which has a new format. After Covid canceled the 2020 season, the conference tournament has changed frequently. In 2021 the MAC regular season champion went to the national tournament. For the two seasons since the top four teams were hosted by the team with the regular season best record for a double-elimination tournament.
This season, the tournament will include the top six teams. That would have gotten Ohio and Toledo to the MAC Tournament in 2023. Giving the top two teams a bye through the first round gives them a significant advantage for the rest of the tournament.
Ball State won a back-and-forth championship game against Kent State last year to punch their postseason ticket. The Cardinals scored four runs in the top of the ninth to win a 12-9 game against the host team. Who is positioned to make the conference tournament and win it?
Evaluating new players coming to MAC programs is difficult. Some of the best teams in the MAC have earned the benefit of the doubt in their talent evaluation, but every player is a gamble. Some bets are better than others.
High school players are preferable but they can be difficult to keep around. The best players go straight to MLB farm systems in the draft. The next tier of high school players sign with SEC, ACC or other power programs. After that, similarly to G5 recruiting in football, the information available drops off steeply. The data from sites like Perfect Game or Prep Baseball Report is generally from tournaments those sites host that players participate in up to the summer after their junior season. The next fall they sign with colleges and stop going to showcases. Projecting from underlying data like exit velocity or spin rate is good, but not perfect.
But if a high school player commits to a university, they are ineligible for the MLB draft for three seasons or until they are 21. In the transfer portal era, keeping them around for three seasons can be difficult, but that’s a two-way street. Junior colleges are also major pipelines for MAC baseball teams, then projecting their impact comes from their stats at the previous school. The competition level is certainly different, but a good hitter is a good hitter generally.
With that out of the way, let’s look at each team heading into 2024!
Akron Zips
2023 Record: 21-34 (12-18)
The Zips had quite the head coaching saga last season, but they finally selected Bryan Faulds to lead the program. They had a coach lined up before last season but he left for another job right before the season in January. The interim, Tim Donnelly, led Akron to their best season since reinstating the program in 2020. Unfortunately, it was still only good for tenth place.
Akron returns about half of their at-bats and innings pitched from 2023, but there is plenty of room for improvement. Losing their Friday starter Sammy Tortorella is a significant loss for a pitching staff that struggled last season.
Key Losses:
3B/SS Nick Arrivo
RF Jack Firestone
SP Sammy Tortorella
Key Returner:
CF Ian Pennington
DH Jack Poist
LF Sam Seeker
Impact Newcomers:
HS Austin Lafferty OF
JUCO James Strom 1B
JUCO Jack Kelly P
Four of their incoming transfers are pitchers, in a clear attempt to improve the pitching staff. They also bring in several highly-rated hitters. I would expect the beginning of the Zips season to see multiple lineups to see what everyone can bring to the game. Their goal this season should be to be closer to .500 in the MAC. That could be a fringe MAC tournament team if the top teams hand out losses to everyone like they usually do.
Ball State Cardinals
2023 Record: 36-21 (19-11)
The reigning MAC champions had three players selected in the MLB Draft and have more than half of their at-bats and innings to replace. The quality of what is returning is some of the best in the conference, especially the hitters. Decker Scheffler had a 1.050 OPS in 2023 and returns to lead the Cardinal offense. The starting pitchers are cleaned out; 43 of 58 starts are no longer on the roster.
Key Losses:
3B Ryan Peltier
SP Trennor O’Donnell
SP Ty Johnson
RP Ryan Brown
Key Returners:
RF Decker Scheffler
C Hunter Dobbins
RP Sam Klein
Impact Newcomers:
JUCO Korbin Griffin OF/P
D2 Michael Halquist INF
HS Connor Hutchinson INF/P
This is hardly new territory for the Cardinals. I’ve written this preview twice before and it’s always the same. The Cardinals have to replace a lot, then they finish in the top three of the conference. They are very good at evaluating JUCO talent and have the results to make Ball State an attractive program.
This year is no different. They have a heavy junior college class incoming with some youth mixed in. Ball State is looking to defend its championship in 2024.
Bowling Green Falcons
2023 Record: 20-30 (13-17)
Bowling Green was led by their pitchers last season and will do so again. Their returning ERA is 3rd in the MAC and nearly 70% of their innings pitched are still on the roster. Starting pitcher Gage Schenk is a significant loss, but the entire staff is strong. The hitters on the other hand struggled through the season.
Key Losses:
C Kyle Gurney
LF Adam Fallon
SP Gage Schenk
Key Returners:
CF Nathan Archer
DH/P DJ Newman
RP Connar Penrod
Impact Newcomers:
D2 David Silva INF – .854 OPS in D2 with 12 HR and 73 SB
HS TJ Takats P/1B – 280th LHP, 102 EV, 86 Fastball, decent spin rate
HS Titus Lotz P – Top 100 LHP, 94 fastball, decent spin rate
They have a young roster relative to the other MAC teams, but they could make a significant jump if their hitters develop from last season. The pitchers that they are bringing in, especially the high schoolers, are very good. DJ Newman was the Freshman Pitcher of the Year last season and he also posted a .976 OPS. He’s a very interesting two-way player for 2024.
Central Michigan Chippewas
2023 Record: 34-23 (19-11)
Jordan Bischel left Central Michigan after the season to run the Cincinnati program after they cleared house concerning the Alabama betting scandal. Jake Sabol is the second consecutive head coach hired from Division II Northwood to Central Michigan. Sabol’s teams at Northwood were dominant, but four important players followed Bischel to Cincinnati.
The returning pitching is solid, the hitters have some work to do despite relatively low losses.
Key Losses:
3B Christian Mitchelle
2B Luke Sefcik
OF/P Garrett Navarra
Key Returners:
OF/DH Robby Morgan IV
OF Marquis Jackson
SP Keegan Batka
Impact Newcomers:
HS Drew Loikits IF
HS Tyler Butina IF
JUCO Sean Knorr P
Central Michigan is one of the best baseball programs in the MAC. The lack of continuity is an opportunity for that to change, but I don’t think that’s going to happen. The incoming players to the program have solid underlying data and their new manager has run a successful program. There might be a momentary dip, but that probably means 4th or 5th in the conference and not higher.
Eastern Michigan Eagles
2023 Record: 27-26 (12-18)
The Eagles moved on from manager Eric Roof after a winning season, a rare move, but they underperformed in conference games. New manager Robbie Britt comes from the University of Charleston and brings two of their best players with him.
Their returning hitters crushed the ball last season and should do the same in 2024. The pitching staff was their downfall last season and they return the lowest number of innings in the MAC.
Key Losses:
OF Matt Kirk
1B Josh Kross
SP Thomas House
Key Returners:
DH Darren Kraft
2B Cory Taylor
RF Kyle Schroedle
Impact Newcomers:
D1 Drew Beckner UTIL
D1 Giano Zuccaro OF
JUCO Aidan Arbogast INF
The Eagles brought in established hitters this offseason and some pitchers with excellent numbers in very small sample sizes. Their offense will be a force to reckon with, but will their run prevention be good enough to turn around a 12-18 conference record?
Kent State Golden Flashes
2023 Record: 42-16 (24-6)
Kent State ran away with the MAC regular season championship and hosted the MAC tournament. They fell to Ball State twice and didn’t make it to an NCAA Regional. They are set to reload and make another run at it this season. They have the second-best returning offense by wOBA and the best ERA. They lost their top-end talent but they didn’t have a hole in their lineup last season.
Key Losses:
1B Aidan Longwell
CF Collin Mathews
C Justin Miknis
SP Joe Whitman
RP Mitchell Scott
Key Returners:
SS Michael McNamara
LF Josh Johnson
RP Jack Kartsonas
Impact Newcomers:
D1 Payton Ebbing P
D1 Gavin Jones P
HS Evan Shapiro P
By my research, Kent State has the best incoming class in the MAC. Every player has obvious upside and a clear reason that they were recruited to Kent State. Two players are transferring in from getting limited playing time at an SEC program. They will be in the mix to host the conference tournament again this season.
Miami RedHawks
2023 Record: 21-35 (13-17)
Former manager Danny Hayden agreed with Miami to leave at the end of the ‘23 season and they hired Brian Smiley. Smiley comes from Indiana State, and they hosted an NCAA regional last year.
Miami’s pitching was punctuated by stretches of being extremely hot and cold. They led the MAC in strikeouts per nine innings and walks per nine innings. With two starting pitchers to replace, hopefully, the highest returning slugging percentage can make up for that.
Key Losses:
SS Cooper Weiss
SP Kenten Egbert
SP Connor Oliver
Key Returners:
1B Ryland Zaborowski
CF Zach MacDonald
2B Dillon Baker
Impact Newcomers:
D1 Alex Stanwich OF
D1 Tre Keels OF
HS Garrison Barile OF
The new hitters have high exit velocities, which is hard to coach. The initial class Smiley is built to slug and hopefully the pitchers find some consistency. Miami could be in line for a big jump if the season breaks the right way.
Northern Illinois Huskies
2023 Record: 10-43 (5-24)
Northern Illinois made the rare decision to move on from their manager before the end of the season. The season wasn’t going well, but that kind of change certainly doesn’t help. Ryan Copeland was hired from the University of Illinois-Springfield after going 131-38.
The Huskies have almost no turnover this coming into 2024, which is interesting given normal graduation, transfer portal and a coaching change. It’s not always a positive to have high retention, the same team that went 10-43 is back for this season.
Key Losses:
OF Tyler Thierry
SP Brandon McPherson
RP Caleb Pittman
Key Returners:
C Colin Summerhill
SS Andre Demetral
RP Mason Ruh
Impact Newcomers:
HS Alex Day P
D2 Adam Brouwer P
JUCO Anthony Fornero INF
NIU is an experienced team with only nine underclassmen. The first year under Copeland will be defined by development from the core of players on the roster. It could be another tough season for the Huskies, or new leadership could get more out of the team and they surprise some teams.
Ohio Bobcats
2023 Record: 19-30 (15-15)
Ohio finished fifth in 2023 and just missed the conference tournament. They collected their MAC wins early in the schedule and a tough schedule in the final weeks allowed Western Michigan to slip past them into the tournament.
The Bobcat bullpen was the strength of their team, but no part of the team was bad. The lose more at-bats than most MAC teams headed into the season, but that’s an opportunity for a struggling offense. The pitching on the other hand is back. A ton of innings return with an above-average ERA and WHIP.
Key Losses:
1B Alec Patino
C Mason Minzey
RP Braxton Kelly
Key Returners:
OF Cole Williams
LF Gideon Antle
RP Dillon Masters
Impact Newcomers:
HS Pauly Mancino OF/P
JUCO Taylor Gill INF
D3 Bryce Smith INF
The hitters that are new to the roster jump out as highly-rated high school players and the transfers have proven themselves at other levels of baseball. Some of the pitchers can make an immediate impact, but more players need development in that position. Catching Ball State, Kent State or Central Michigan is a tall task, but the Bobcats should make the conference tournament in 2024.
Toledo Rockets
2023 Record: 26-29 (14-16)
The Toledo Rockets had an above-average batting average and the third best slugging percentage in the MAC. It was their strategy last season when they led the MAC with 98 home runs. Their pitching wasn’t bad, they just weren’t consistent enough to finish over .500. That happens in a 30 game sample.
They are another team with low turnover, and the returning players gave the Rockets a wOBA and ERA better than the MAC average. Jeron Williams was drafted by the Houston Astros in the ninth round and leaves gigantic shoes to fill at short stop.
Key Losses:
SS Jeron Williams
UTIL Daunte DeCello
RP Cal McAninch
Key Returners:
LF Caden Konczak
DH Owen Jackson
SP Noah Johnson
Impact Newcomers:
HS Cole Cahill 1B/OF
JUCO Kaleb Herbert INF
D3 Michael Bronowski C/OF
Toledo is taking some chances on pitchers with small sample sizes at their previous school. Their ability to scout players will be on display this season. The incoming hitters are a strong group and should provide depth to fill the gaps left by players leaving. This year could be a Toledo year.
Western Michigan Broncos
2023 Record: 21-31 (18-11)
The Broncos surged into the fourth spot at the end of the season and made the conference tournament. Kent State and Central Michigan gave them a quick exit, but the top three were in a class of their own all season. Western Michigan made the dance and gave themselves a chance.
The core of the offense is back to make another run at a conference championship, but they need development from their pitchers. Brady Miller and Hayden Burg were a great one-two punch but they need more than that.
Key Losses:
3B Gavin Doyle
CF Will Morrison
SP Dane Armbrustmacher
Key Returners:
1B Cade Sullivan
SP Brady Miller
RP Hayden Burg
Impact Newcomers:
HS Cooper Hums OF
D2 Jayden Dentler P
D2 Sam Carlisle P
Western Michigan found a pair of Division II pitchers with good stats that will likely contribute immediately. If the Broncos can find the lineup and rotation mix that works for them, they could make the MAC Tournament in consecutive seasons.