Syracuse men’s lacrosse: How does the Orange’s postseason resume stack up at this point?

The games are running short as we approach the final weekend of the regular season, so how does ‘Cuse compare to other at-large teams?

Entering the final weekend of the regular season coming off back-to-back losses, the Syracuse Orange need to get back in the win column to feel more secure about their standing come Selection Sunday.

Before we get to the weekend and the Orange’s regular season finale at home against the North Carolina Tar Heels, let’s take a look at a snapshot of ‘Cuse’s resume and how it stacks up against some of the other contending potential at-large teams.

The NCAA Tournament is made up of 10 automatic bids, the conference tournament winners minus the ACC, and eight at-larges for everyone else. For this article, I’m going to assume that the team with the highest (best) RPI in each conference will be their auto-bid, so the teams I list here will remove those teams from the list of teams to compare to SU since I’m listing them as automatic teams instead of at-larges.

With that said, let’s look at the top RPI contenders among other factors:

• Cornell: RPI 3, SOS 14, Record vs. RPI Top 20 5-1
• Penn State: RPI 4, SOS 7, Record vs. RPI Top 20 5-3
• Notre Dame: RPI 5, SOS 15, Record vs. RPI Top 20 4-3
• North Carolina: RPI 6, SOS 11, Record vs. RPI Top 20 4-3
• Duke: RPI 7, SOS 8, Record vs. RPI Top 20 5-3, outside RPI Top 20 loss to Denver
• Ohio State: RPI 8, SOS 18, Record vs. RPI Top 20 6-1, outside RPI Top 20 loss to Utah
• Syracuse: RPI 9, SOS 10, Record vs. RPI Top 20 3-4
• Harvard: RPI 10, SOS 13, Record vs. RPI Top 20 4-2, outside RPI Top 20 loss to Colgate
• Michigan: RPI 13, SOS 2, Record vs. RPI Top 20 3-6

Of the teams in the top 13 of the RPI, I took out Princeton (RPI 1), Maryland (RPI 2), Army (RPI 11) and Richmond (RPI 12), assuming for now that they’re the ‘automatic bids’ for their respective conferences, so the teams listed above are the remaining top contenders for the eight at-large bids.

This might be an over-simplification, but I think we can say that, at the moment, we can say that Cornell, Penn State, Notre Dame, North Carolina, Duke and Ohio State are all looking pretty good for at-large bids. That’s if the tournament were to start this weekend, and is obviously subject to change if anyone suffers a surprise loss that knocks them down between now and Selection Sunday.

Those teams would be taking up the first six at-large spots, leaving Syracuse, Harvard and Michigan to fight it out for the final two spots. This is also assuming there are no bid stealers, like if Michigan wins the Big 10 tournament, that knocks Maryland into an at-large spot which they would definitely claim. Army is an interesting one, as well, if they don’t win the Patriot League tournament.

Assuming no bid stealers, we’re looking at that trio for the final two spots. I think Harvard gets the first spot thanks to the best RPI Top 20 record and, as we unfortunately know, their head-to-head win over SU. The other numbers are close enough that I think that put the Crimson in ahead of the Orange.

SU and Michigan have very similar resumes, including the same number of Top 20 wins and each win a ‘crown jewel’ type win over Notre Dame and Maryland, respectively. Michigan has the better SOS and ‘Cuse has the better RPI. Personally, I think the Orange being four spots ahead of the Wolverines on RPI gives them the leg up for the moment for the final at-large spot.

But what all of this does is emphasize how close the bubble is, especially for the handful near the edge. If we have SU as the last team in right now, which I do and Inside Lacrosse did earlier this week, then that’s a problem should any bid stealing occur.

The bottom line becomes that the Orange are definitely in need of one more win against a strong opponent to bolster their resume, and perhaps two if they want to feel completely comfortable.

With only two weekends left before Selection Sunday, there is much work left for ‘Cuse’s postseason chances.