The time has come to learn the Orange’s postseason fate.
After three months of regular season lacrosse, we have arrived at Selection Sunday, where the Syracuse Orange men’s and women’s teams will learn their NCAA Tournament road map.
The women’s selection show will kick start the night at 9 PM, followed immediately by the men’s show at 9:30 PM. Both will air on ESPN 2.
Before we learn the brackets, let’s take one final look at the resumes and likely draws for each.
Getting hyped for Selection Sunday! pic.twitter.com/QW6W7znUrx
— Syracuse Women’s Lacrosse (@CuseWLAX) May 5, 2024
Women
- Record: 14-5 overall, 10-2 ACC
- RPI: 3
- SOS: 1
- Record vs. RPI 1-5: 0-3
- Record vs. RPI 6-10: 3-2
- Record vs. RPI 11-20: 2-0
- Record vs. RPI 20+: 9-0
The women are certainly looking like a lock for a Top 4 seed with their combination of RPI, SOS and four wins over teams in the top-11 of the RPI. The question is, can they grab the final bye seed at No. 3?
Northwestern will be No. 1, and Boston College will be No. 2. But it’s a real cluster after that made up of a bunch of teams who struggle to stand out from each other. Behind ‘Cuse in the RPI are Yale, Penn, Maryland, Stony Brook, Loyola, Michigan, and Virginia to round out the Top 10.
I’m not sure I see a team in there who can or should jump ahead of SU in seeding. The team with probably the best case is Maryland, especially given their head-to-head win over the Orange. But their No. 6 RPI and SOS don’t measure up, plus they have two losses outside the RPI Top 20.
‘Cuse has the best RPI of teams in contention for the third seed, and they have the best SOS in the entire country. I think the Orange should and will snag the No. 3 seed.
Men
- Record: 11-5 overall, 3-2 ACC
- RPI: 4
- SOS: 5
- Record vs. RPI 1-5: 3-2
- Record vs. RPI 6-10: 0-1
- Record vs. RPI 11-20: 0-2
- Record vs. RPI 20+: 8-0
The men are in an eerily similar situation to the women.
Notre Dame is about as clear of a No. 1 seed as it’s possible to be, and Duke’s win over SU on Friday should lock up the No. 2 seed for the Blue Devils.
After that, ‘Cuse appears to be locked in a battle with Johns Hopkins for the No. 3 and No. 4 seed placement.
Then, it’s looking like Virginia, Denver, Maryland, Princeton, Penn State and Georgetown will be vying to fill in the remaining four seeds, but let’s take a closer look at the ‘Cuse/Hopkins resume comparison:
The areas where the Orange have the advantage are in SOS (5 vs. 8), RPI Top 5 wins (3 vs. 1), RPI 20+ losses (0 vs. 1) and the all-important head-to-head win. Hopkins has the advantage in RPI (3 vs. 4) and RPI Top 20 wins (6 vs. 3).
It’s very close between the two, and the answer will probably come down to what the members of the committee value the most. If they stay very loyal to RPI, then Hopkins could come out on top.
I personally am of the opinion that the resumes are close enough that ‘Cuse’s head-to-head win should be the difference maker, so I’m going to say they eek out the No. 3 seed, but they should be top-4 regardless.
As for opponent, it seems like the most likely options are Lehigh (Patriot League champion), Saint Joseph’s (Atlantic 10 champion) and Towson (CAA champions). Albany won the America East but has the worst RPI of any conference champion, so they’ll be playing in the play-in game instead of being an option for a Dome trip.