New data shows just how difficult the path could be for Fran Brown and company.
While the 2024 season ended in a campaign full of success for the Syracuse Orange, the path for next year will prove to be a greater challenge for coach Fran Brown and the program.
At least on paper.
New numbers show that Syracuse will enter the 2025 season with one of the toughest schedules in the FBS, and the most difficult schedule among all 18 ACC teams. Just how much of a hill will coach Brown and the Orange be forced to climb next season?
Here’s what the data shows.
To recap, Syracuse will begin its 2025 slate in Atlanta to face Tennessee on August 30. After a pair of home games versus UConn and Colgate, Syracuse begins ACC play at Clemson starting on September 20. The rest of the ACC road matchups include SMU, Georgia Tech and Miami, with the road regular season finale coming against Notre Dame. The Orange get Duke, Pittsburgh, North Carolina and Boston College in the JMA Wireless Dome.
ESPN recently unveiled its top-40 strength of schedules based on its SP+ metric. ESPN’s Bill Connelly bases the SP+ projection on three key factors — returning production, recent recruiting and recent history.
Returning production accounts for more than 60% of the full projection, while recent recruiting and recent history make up around 14% and 20%, respectively. This data is fluid, as Connelly recent wrote he plans to update the numbers at least two more times in May and August.
Based on the most up-to-date SP+ data, Syracuse will enter the 2025 season with the 14th-toughest strength of schedule. Not only is that the highest compared to all other ACC teams, but it’s 16 spots ahead of the second-toughest schedule among conference programs (Florida State at No. 30).
Now that 2025 CFB schedules are officially set, here’s the projected top 40 for SP+ strength of schedule.
(Reminder: The SOS rating is the projected win% an average top-5 team could expect against your schedule. OU and Florida will need to be top-5 caliber to go even 9-3.) pic.twitter.com/Lf3sKcgaLD
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) March 5, 2025
Obviously, a few caveats that should be mentioned. First, these are just projected numbers and are focused solely on the lens of the (way-too-early) preseason period, not taking into account anything that could (or will) happen in a college football season. Second, notice the obvious skew that favors the SEC — 13 of the top-15 teams with the toughest strength of schedule according to SP+ are from that conference (the others: Syracuse and Wisconsin at No. 4).
Lastly, at least around 40% of the SP+ focuses on two components Syracuse is just now working on improving: recruitment (definitely in better standing under coach Brown) and history (Syracuse’s 2024 season was its best in six years and just the third time the program finished with at least 10 wins this century).
All that being said, it is a telling reminder that Syracuse’s path ahead will indeed be super difficult.
Our staff (and plenty of readers) have summarized the situation with two key points: 1) the schedule on paper just features way more high-ceiling/name-brand opponents that will have a clear advantage and 2) pretty much all of Syracuse’s toughest opponents will be on the road.
Photo by Bryan Bennett/Getty Images
Specifically with the latter thought, it also means Syracuse practically has no room for error especially in its home games.
The SP+ rankings are really loving the Orange, who according to this new data, project to win 4.7 games during the 2025 regular season.
Returning production, which makes up the majority of the SP+ projection, is alas really tough to dance around.
The most recent numbers have Syracuse ranked No. 57 in SP+, which is 11 spots lower than when the SP+ data was first released at the end of the 2024 season. That currently ranks 12th among the ACC programs. While Syracuse (on paper) projects to have a top-40 defense, the Orange’s updated offense SP+ ranking sits at No. 84.
The most influential key to Syracuse’s success in 2024 was the offense. Now, several of those big-time pieces are off to newer pastures, namely quarterback Kyle McCord, running back LeQuint Allen and receivers Oronde Gadsden and Jackson Meeks.
Returning production percentage does not favor the Orange, who not enters the 2025 season (as of now) ranked No. 90 overall, but will bring back the least amount of its 2024 production in the ACC.
Doing a (very) way-too-early projection, all the numbers suggest this — if Syracuse is looking to at least reach six wins and bowl eligibility, where and when is that sixth win coming from? And if Syracuse drops one of its four games to any of Duke, Pitt, UNC and BC, that question really becomes more important to find an answer for.
Take these numbers with a grain of salt as always, but the data does show Syracuse will be facing a true test in 2025.