Several dominoes have fallen so far in Week 16 with respect to the NFL’s playoff picture. The Cowboys have been eliminated while the Patriots, Seahawks, Bears, Eagles and 49ers have locked in a postseason berth.
The final two weeks of the campaign will determine the remaining playoff spots, but they will also sort out the top of the draft order. Six teams remain within striking distance of the No. 1 pick, although the Titans’ win on Sunday greatly weakened their chances of landing the top selection for the second year in a row. One contest in particular will be worth monitoring next week with respect to draft positioning.
The Giants and Raiders each sport a record of 2-13. They will play each other in Week 17, meaning the loser of that contest will have the inside track for the No. 1 pick. New York already has a head coaching vacancy while Pete Carroll is in danger of going one-and-done in Vegas. Plenty of incentive for winning will exist for Carroll in particular, but the outcome of that game will have major implications on the draft order.
For non-playoff teams, the draft order is determined by the inverted 2025 standings plus a series of tiebreakers, starting with strength of schedule. Playoff squads are slotted by their postseason outcome and the reverse order of their regular season record.
Here is an updated look at the first-round order:
- New York Giants (2-13)
- Las Vegas Raiders (2-13)
- Cleveland Browns (3-12)
- New York Jets (3-12)
- Arizona Cardinals (3-12)
- Tennessee Titans (3-12)
- Washington Commanders (4-11)
- New Orleans Saints (5-10)
- Cincinnati Bengals (5-10)
- Miami Dolphins (6-9)
- Los Angeles Rams (via Falcons)
- Kansas City Chiefs (6-9)
- Dallas Cowboys (6-8-1)
- Baltimore Ravens (7-8)
- Minnesota Vikings (7-8)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8)
- Detroit Lions (8-7)
- New York Jets (via Colts)
- Carolina Panthers (8-7)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6)
- Dallas Cowboys (via Packers)
- Philadelphia Eagles (10-5)
- Houston Texans (10-5)
- Buffalo Bills (11-4)
- San Francisco 49ers (10-4)
- Los Angeles Chargers (11-4)
- Cleveland Browns (via Jaguars)
- Los Angeles Rams (11-4)
- Chicago Bears (11-4)
- New England Patriots (12-3)
- Denver Broncos (12-3)
- Seattle Seahawks (12-3)