The NFL now has its first teams eliminated from playoff contention. The Texans and Bears, as they essentially have been doing throughout this season, are playing for next year. Other eliminations will soon follow, as the league’s playoff picture heats up.
Through that lens, the 2023 draft order will become an increasingly more pertinent topic. The 2023 draft will present an interesting subplot near its outset. Traded picks are set to produce early selections for the Seahawks, Lions and Eagles. Each of those picks currently land in the top five, as the teams on the other end of those trades — the Broncos, Rams and Saints — have disappointed, spectacularly so in Los Angeles and Denver’s cases.
For non-playoff teams, the draft order will be determined by the inverted 2022 standings — plus a series of tiebreakers, starting with strength of schedule — with playoff squads being slotted by their postseason outcome and regular-season record. Here is how the draft order would look entering Week 14:
- Houston Texans: 1-10-1
- Chicago Bears: 3-9
- Seattle Seahawks (via Broncos)
- Detroit Lions (via Rams)
- Philadelphia Eagles (via Saints)
- Carolina Panthers: 4-8
- Jacksonville Jaguars: 4-8
- Arizona Cardinals: 4-8
- Indianapolis Colts: 4-8-1
- Atlanta Falcons: 5-8
- Green Bay Packers: 5-8
- Las Vegas Raiders: 5-7
- Houston Texans (via Browns)
- Pittsburgh Steelers: 5-7
- Detroit Lions: 5-7
- Los Angeles Chargers: 6-6
- New England Patriots: 6-6
- Washington Commanders: 7-5-1
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-6*
- Seattle Seahawks: 7-5*
- Tennessee Titans: 7-5*
- New York Jets: 7-5*
- New York Giants: 7-4-1*
- Denver Broncos (via 49ers through Dolphins)*
- Baltimore Ravens: 8-4*
- Cincinnati Bengals: 8-4*
- Dallas Cowboys: 9-3*
- Kansas City Chiefs: 9-3*
- Minnesota Vikings: 10-2*
- Buffalo Bills: 9-3*
- Philadelphia Eagles: 11-1*
* = Denotes playoff team
The 2023 first round will resemble 2008 and 2016, when the Patriots were docked their Round 1 pick for their respective “gate” scandals. This year’s Dolphins saga never developed “gate” status, but the team lost a 2023 first-round pick and 2024 third-rounder due to the Tom Brady–Sean Payton tampering case. Thus, a 31-pick first round will commence.
While the Broncos, Rams and Browns lost their first-round picks due to trades for quarterbacks, the Saints passed theirs to the Eagles in this year’s pre-draft trade that allowed New Orleans a path toward moving up for Chris Olave. The No. 16 pick which was initially transferred from the Colts to the Eagles in 2021’s Carson Wentz trade was then moved to the Saints, netting Philadelphia a 2023 first-rounder and a 2024 second.