The Dolphins are 2-7 against Buffalo since Hill’s arrival in Miami
It’s safe to say that Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill is more than a little irritated at his relative lack of success against the Buffalo Bills over the last few years. Speaking on a panel at Fanatics Fan Fest, the speedster and former All-Pro explained that “whenever we play the Bills, those guys typically play Cover 4 because they’re a bunch of bitches.”
Hill has played nine games against Buffalo during his tenure with the Miami Dolphins, compiling a stat line of 45 receptions (five per game), 470 yards (52.2), and two touchdowns (0.22). The Bills played cover 4 15% of the time overall in 2024, tied for 11th-most in the NFL. They employed two-high (cover 2, cover 4, or cover 6) coverages 73.0% of the time against the Dolphins in 2024 and 52.7% against all their other opponents.
The idea that the Bills would play more two-high coverages against Miami than other teams makes perfect sense. Although the Dolphins have been ineffective overall at dethroning the Bills from atop the AFC East in recent years, they still employ two great vertical threats in Hill and former top-10 pick Jaylen Waddle.
Miami famously put up 70 points against the Denver Broncos in 2023, with Hill racking up 157 yards and a touchdown on nine catches. The Dolphins compiled 726 yards of total offense that game and a whopping 10.23 yards per play. Their quarterback Tua Tagovailoa remains a top tier vertical passer, having an adjusted completion percentage of 50% or better on throws 20+ yards down the field in three of the last four years.
Compare those results to those against the Bills: in each of the last four seasons, Tagovailoa has had at least one game against Buffalo that resulted in his adjusted completion percentage being a bottom-three game for him that season. He, like Hill, has played nine games against Buffalo as a Dolphin with a stat line of 1830 passing yards, nine touchdowns, 10 interceptions, and a passer rating of 80.5. Tagovailoa also happens to be the only quarterback in the NFL with a passer rating over 100 in each of his last three seasons, as a point of comparison.
The low points of the Dolphins’ passing offense consistently seem to come when they play against the back-to-back-to-back-to back AFC East champions.
Make no mistake: it’s not an accident that the Bills employ Cover 4 against the Dolphins. If anything, the remainder of Miami’s opponents should be wondering why they’re not playing it (or playing it as effectively) as Buffalo is. It’s proven to be a winning strategy for Buffalo and apparently a thorn in the side for Miami and Tyreek Hill specifically.
…and that’s the way the cookie crumbles. I’m Bruce Nolan with Buffalo Rumblings. You can find me on Twitter and Instagram @BruceExclusive and look for new episodes of “The Bruce Exclusive” every Thursday on the Rumblings Cast Network — see more in my LinkTree!