Thematic throughline dominates Buffalo Bills’ 2025 NFL Draft, FA priorities

I’m sensing a theme…

What was the biggest issue with the Buffalo Bills in 2024?

The quarterback was the MVP. The offensive line was great. The running backs were fantastic.

The wide receivers had their concerning moments in games, but didn’t stop the team from fielding the best offense in franchise history. The tight ends underperformed relative to expectations coming into Dalton Kincaid’s second year, but was anybody screaming for additions there?

Most people would say that defense was the most significant (not only) issue with the Bills last season, but let’s go deeper than that. Where specifically on defense? What triggered the obscenities at the television and the pulling of whatever hair you have left?

Was it the run defense? No, it was likely the pass defense, and the metrics back up your frustration. Of all the DVOA metrics Buffalo had in 2024 (passing DVOA, rushing DVOA, pass defense DVOA, and rush defense DVOA), pass defense ranked the worst for the team, at a decidedly middling 15th in the NFL.

“So by all means, let’s invest the most resources in the defense this offseason,” the team may have said, clearly reflected by their draft capital and guaranteed money expenditures, outlined by Joe Dibiase of WGR550:

But let’s go one step even deeper than that. Buffalo held opposing teams to the fourth-longest average third down in the NFL, yet allowed one of the highest amounts of total first downs of any defense in the league.

It wasn’t just defense.
It wasn’t just pass defense.
It wasn’t just third-down passing defense.

It was 3rd & Long passing defense.

How many times did you make a joke about it to your friends or on social media? It was colloquially expected that the Bills would get an opposing team into 3rd & Long and then give up the first down — over and over again.

I thought about this phenomenon a lot watching the early parts of the 2025 NFL Draft. I have no idea how specifically intentional this thematic throughline was in its creation, but it is certainly noticeable in its digestion.

Cornerback Maxwell Hairston, Defensive tackle T.J. Sanders, edge rusher Landon Jackson, and defensive tackle Deone Walker all have opportunities to make the team better. They have opportunities to make the defense better. They have opportunities to make the pass defense better. But even most specifically, they have the opportunity to make the 3rd & Long passing defense better.

Maxwell Hairston excels from off-coverage where he can use his aggressiveness, explosion, and athleticism to close on balls in the air. When are you most likely to play off coverage (with a safety over the top to allow aggressiveness from your corners)? Third and long.

T.J. Sanders is a mature pass rusher, someone who general manager Brandon Beane openly discussed playing next to Ed Oliver on passing downs. Which obvious passing downs? Third and long.

What do you need from your edge rushers on 3rd & Long to help your interior defensive linemen get home? Compression and power generated from the edge by long-limbed, heavy-handed rushers. Landon Jackson is a long-limbed, heavy-handed compression player.

And wouldn’t it be nice to have a depth player for those interior pass rushers that you feel can come in and provide a spark to the rush like Jordan Phillips did during his 10-sack season in 2019? Someone who doesn’t necessarily have to play a lot of snaps for you, but needs to bring the juice when he’s in. Funny you should ask because there was a defensive tackle in this class who was frequently compared to Jordan Phillips by the name of Deone Walker.

It’s not even just the first part of the draft class. Look at the top four Bills free-agency contracts. One of them was on offense (Joshua Palmer). The other was a pass rusher with injury issues they’ll attempt to manage by limiting his snaps to the bigger money downs (like 3rd & Long) in Joey Bosa. Then there’s an interior pass rusher in Larry Ogunjobi, and a hybrid player whose value is highly touted as being such that it allows a team to better-disguise coverages in Michael Hoecht. When do you want to use your best disguises? Third and long to get off the field.

If the four main portions of scrimmage football are passing the ball, stopping the pass, running the ball, and stopping the run, here are the quick-and-dirty, done-to-make-a-point meaningful resource allocations the team made this offseason:

Stopping the pass = 80%
Stopping the run = 10%
Passing the ball = 9%
Running the ball = 1% (Jackson Hawes shout out)

Obviously all those defensive players mentioned above will play snaps against the run too. But all of them major in helping the team stop the pass and, specifically, help on obvious passing downs that last season the team was good at getting into and bad at getting out of.

Hopefully we’ll all have a bit more hair at this time next year.

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…and that’s the way the cookie crumbles. I’m Bruce Nolan with Buffalo Rumblings. You can find me on Twitter and Instagram @BruceExclusive and look for new episodes of “The Bruce Exclusive” every Thursday on the Rumblings Cast Network — see more in my LinkTree!