ESPN Analytics offers no clarity on Sunday’s marquee matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Buffalo Bills.
The Cowboys enter the Week 15 showdown riding high after improving to 10-3 with a demonstrative 33-13 win over the Philadelphia Eagles. However, the 7-6 Bills are 2.5-point favorites at Orchard Park.
ESPN’s Matchup Predictor projects an evenly matched contest.
Dallas has a 50 percent win probability, a tick above Buffalo’s 49.6 percent chances, accounting for the slight possibility of a tie.
Since getting destroyed by the San Francisco 49ers, the Cowboys have won six straight games by a combined 116 points. They’re tied with the Eagles atop the NFC East while also jousting with San Francisco for the conference’s coveted No. 1 seed.
Dallas ranks second behind San Francisco in ESPN’s FPI. Meanwhile, the Bills moved ahead of the Baltimore Ravens to No. 3 following a momentous win over the Kansas City Chiefs.
Two NFC teams sit atop our NFL FPI rankings, according to ESPN Analytics 🍿 pic.twitter.com/6gw1SGOfvq
— ESPN (@espn) December 12, 2023
Controversial ending aside, the Bills played neck-and-neck on the road against last season’s Super Bowl participants in consecutive weeks. Those performances (and a +104 point differential) suggest they’re far better than their record indicates.
However, a Week 15 loss would still push them outside the playoff bubble.
Buffalo is 5-1 at Highmark Stadium this season, and the Cowboys have suffered all three losses on the road. The location of Sunday’s game is enough for Vegas to give the Bills a slight edge, but ESPN’s model indicates that it just erases any gap.
The most intriguing game on Sunday’s schedule starts at 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX.