In February, we spoke of Dalton Kincaid as a target in Dynasty Leagues. However, based on his current ADP, fantasy managers should be targeting him in best ball and redraft leagues. Kincaid was no doubt a major disappointment last season, finishing as overall TE29. With that being said, the savvy fantasy players will use the recency bias to their advantage. The underlying data on Kincaid suggests he remains a tight end target for us with the potential to smash his ADP. Fantasy managers have not yet placed Kincaid in the Kyle Pitts frustration level, but he is on that path. Similar to Pitts, we believe Dalton Kincaid is a major draft value with the ability to finish as a top-12 tight end in 2025.
Dalton Kincaid: A Fringe TE1 Going in Round 11 of Best Ball Drafts
The Fantasy Data on Kincaid Shows The Underlying Potential
As we looked at Kincaid’s 2024 metrics, his overall receiving numbers were positive. His 75 targets were top 15, and keep in mind he only played in 13 games. In 2024, he improved in multiple key categories. His target share, yards per route run, and targets per route all increased. Two more important key points: First, Kincaid’s expected weekly average was 10.0 PPR points per game, but he finished at 8.0. So you can see, he is due for positive regression. Some might say 10.0 PPR points per game is nothing, but that would have been Cade Otton, the 2024 TE11. Second, his catchable ball rate dropped from nearly 90% in 2023 to 69% this season. Take advantage and buy the dip as you start your fantasy drafts.
Kincaid is Tied to An Elite Quarterback in Josh Allen
Any time you can invest in a fantasy offense tied to an elite quarterback, you have a chance. Barring injury, Josh Allen is as close to a lock as you can get in fantasy football. Since 2021, Allen has finished no lower than QB2 in fantasy. With Allen under center, Buffalo finished top-10 in total offense and second in points per game at 30.9. The Bills are going to score points, and Kincaid, based on his ADP, gives us a low-risk, high-reward exposure to that offense.
In addition, the alpha in the Buffalo Bills’ passing game remains up for grabs. Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and Joshua Palmer are the projected top three wide receivers for the Bills. However, the departures of Amari Cooper and Mack Hollins leave 135 vacated targets.
It’s Time For Dalton Kincaid to Deliver on His Draft Capital
Kincaid will continue to have high expectations, having been a first-round draft pick in 2023. In his rookie year, he finished as the overall TE11. Yes, last year was a disappointment, but the metrics indicate it was not all that bad. Kincaid ranked second on the Bills with 75 targets and garnered a 15.5% target share. Among qualified tight ends, his 10.2 yards per reception ranked among the top 12 at the position. Before his injury in week 10, Kincaid was posting a 65.5% snap rate.
In the late rounds of our fantasy drafts, we go for upside. Being able to draft Kincaid at pick 134 makes him an ideal candidate. As we have stated in the past, you want to be a year ahead of a player, not a year behind. Grab Dalton Kincaid in round 11 of best ball drafts and thank us at LWONFL later!
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