The Buffalo Bills are the NFL’s most likely playoff team after three weeks according to number-crunching site FiveThirtyEight. Coming in with an 89 percent chance of making the postseason, they are 7 percent clear of the next-highest AFC team, the Tennessee Titans. Buffalo’s projected record of 12-5 is also tops, along with a staggering projected point differential of +154.
Buffalo’s playoff chances are buoyed by their 79 percent chance of winning the AFC East (tied for the highest percentage in the league). At 2-1, Buffalo is a game ahead of the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots at 1-2 and the woeful 0-3 New York Jets, plus they have a tiebreaker over Miami.
The Bills also have a 21 percent chance of earning a first-round bye—leaps and bounds ahead of the teams in the AFC West. The hard schedule of the 3-0 Denver Broncos, 3-0 Las Vegas Raiders, 2-1 Los Angeles Chargers, and 1-2 Kansas City Chiefs is the reason those teams are all so low.