The Buffalo Bills checked the first item of their to-do list by clinching a playoff berth with a dominant win over the San Francisco 49ers last week. Now their sights are set on hunting down the Kansas City Chiefs for the AFC’s top seed as they travel to face the Los Angeles Rams.
A quick glance at the Buffalo and Kansas City schedules suggests Sunday’s game is a virtual must-win for the Bills if they want home-field advantage and the first-round bye. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where the Chiefs lose three of their final five games, which means the Bills can only afford one more loss and they have a ridiculously tough road contest against the Detroit Lions looming next week.
Here’s a look at the AFC playoff picture entering Week 14:
- Kansas City Chiefs (11-1; AFC West)
- Buffalo Bills (10-2; AFC East)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3; AFC North)
- Houston Texans (8-5; AFC South)
- Los Angeles Chargers (8-4; Wild Card)
- Baltimore Ravens (8-5; Wild Card)
- Denver Broncos (8-5; Wild Card)
The Bills can’t afford to overlook the Rams. They’re far more talented than their 6-6 record indicates, and they’re capable of emulating last year’s late-season surge into the playoffs. A win over Buffalo could certainly help spark that type of run for Matthew Stafford and Co.
Buffalo and L.A. are scheduled for a 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff Sunday at SoFi Stadium. The game will be broadcast on Fox.
Bills-Rams Game Preview and Score Prediction (Week 14)
X-Factors
Bills: LB Matt Milano
Milano just played his first game since October 2023. He missed the second half of the 2023 season with a leg injury and the first 11 games of the current campaign with a bicep injury. In turn, he was predictably rusty against the Niners.
The 2022 First Team All-Pro selection looked a step slow with his play processing. That’s not a surprise given the circumstances, but it did prevent him from making his usual impact. His 41.3 overall grade from Pro Football Focus is a fair estimate of his performance.
Although the Bills are in win-now mode, they’re still going to play Milano as much as possible in the coming weeks. He needs to get his feel for the game back. They’re hoping he’s back to normal—a three-down, sideline-to-sideline superstar—in time for the playoffs.
Sean McDermott said he felt Matt Milano got better as the game went on. Said he got his legs under him. Also was in contact with trainers and everything was good as they were going which is why he felt comfortable keeping playing him.
— Sal Capaccio
(@SalSports) December 2, 2024
Milano’s play this week will be particularly interesting. Does he showcase steady progress, shaking off the rust and potentially the first-game-back nerves? Or is it possible the cumulative toll of his recent serious injuries prevents him from playing like he did in the past? It’s too early to tell, but each week will move closer to revealing the answer.
The Rams surely witnessed the linebacker’s underwhelming outing on tape. As a result, they’ll likely try to attack him early, both on the ground and through the air. How Milano responds to those challenges is crucial for the Buffalo defense.
Rams: RB Kyren Williams
Williams is coming off his best performance of the year. The third-year running back posted season-high totals in rushing yards (104) and yards per carry (6.9). He also scored a second-half touchdown in an important 21-14 win over the New Orleans Saints.
The Rams are going to need a similar performance Sunday. The Bills don’t have a ton of weaknesses, but their biggest one is stopping the run game. They’re tied for 28th in rushing yards allowed per attempt (4.9), and it’s been even worse over the last three weeks (5.3).
It was a great bounce back game for Rams RB Kyren Williams.
Over half of his rushes producing positive EPA and had a +36 RYOE, which is his most in a game since Week 15 last season. pic.twitter.com/t2Yno4KSZb
— Blaine Grisak
(@bgrisakTST) December 2, 2024
Baltimore laid out the blueprint for neutralizing Buffalo in Week 4. Derrick Henry ran for 199 yards on 24 carries, which allowed Lamar Jackson to throw just 18 passes. He was highly efficient on those attempts, averaging 8.7 yards per pass and tallying a pair of touchdowns.
L.A. must attempt to follow the same path. Get Williams rolling on its first few drives and force Buffalo out of its preferred two-high shell. That’ll open up the passing lanes for Stafford and create more one-on-one opportunities for Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.
Williams is also a capable receiver in the passing game. So, look for the Rams to isolate him on Milano to see if that’s an exploitable matchup, as well.
Key Matchup
Bills QB Josh Allen vs. Rams LB Christian Rozeboom
Allen delivered a strong statement in his NFL Most Valuable Player quest in Sunday’s win over the 49ers. The quarterback accounted for four touchdowns, including a lateral from wide receiver Amari Cooper that counted as a TD pass to himself, putting his unique skill set on full display.
THIS IS THE MOST RIDICULOUS THING WE HAVE EVER SEEN.
: @SNFonNBC pic.twitter.com/LzaOt3MDLj
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) December 2, 2024
With all due respect to the other top MVP contenders—namely Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley, and Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff—nobody is more valuable to their team this season than the Bills quarterback. It’s not particularly close.
Allen has compiled 27 total touchdowns and ranks second in ESPN’s Total QBR (74.7). He’s the most important player on the field in every game he plays.
Therefore, the first question for every opponent, including the Rams this week, is what can be done to at least prevent him from completely taking over the game?
Los Angeles’ answer could be Rozeboom.
The 27-year-old linebacker is enjoying a breakout season. He leads the Rams in total tackles (103) to go along with four passes defended and an interception.
Christian Rozeboom deserves to get some notice for his play as of late. He’s not just racking up tackles but meaningful stops on the ground and through the air. I feel like his anticipation and attack of the ball has been terrific. He had one of his best games as a pro against NO pic.twitter.com/4VoGdojPP5
— RAMS ON FILM (@RamsOnFilm) December 5, 2024
Rozeboom, who was also a track and field standout in high school, has a unique blend of size and speed that could make him an ideal spy on Allen. Keeping the face of the Bills franchise in the pocket is a large part of the battle when it comes to slowing him down.
Although Rozeboom continues to fly under the radar on a national level, that could change in a heartbeat if he takes on a leading role in a Rams upset.
Final Score Prediction: 24-23 Bills
This game features so many variables.
The Bills are coming off an emotional division-clinching win and have a possible Game of the Year candidate on the horizon next week. That’s typically a situation ripe for a letdown performance. Yet, Buffalo understands its limited margin for error in the top seed race leaves no room for letdowns.
Meanwhile, the Rams probably need to win at least four of their last five games to make the playoffs. A loss to the Bills means a clean sweep would be required amid a difficult schedule. If head coach Sean McVay and his staff have any tricks up their sleeve, you’ll see them Sunday.
The result should be a game that comes down to the final few possessions.
Bills vs Rams DVOA comparison #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/OPdUzgWVKy
— Aaron Quinn (@AaronQuinn716) December 5, 2024
That said, it’s hard to pick against the Bills. They’re riding a seven-game winning streak, they have the best player on the field (Allen) and they’re within striking distance of the top seed, which has been a missing element in their recent period of Super Bowl contention.
It’s also worth noting Buffalo kicker Tyler Bass, who fell to the roster brink earlier in the season, has bounced back. He’s made 30 of his last 33 kicks (90.9 percent) over the past six games. That’s great news for the Bills when it comes to close games in the fourth quarter.
In the end, the Rams could flip the script in their favor with one well-timed takeaway, but Buffalo is the pick.
Main Photo Courtesy of Gregory Fisher – Imagn Images
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