BUFFALO, N.Y. (WIVB) — A downtrodden Josh Allen stared at the floor of the media room in Arrowhead Stadium after the Bills’ AFC championship loss and offered a quote that should resonate throughout the team’s offseason.
“To be the champs,” Allen said, not breaking his gaze, “you gotta beat the champs. And we didn’t do it tonight.”
Their fourth playoff loss to the Chiefs in five seasons showed once again that the Bills still don’t have the pieces to achieve their goals. Free agency opens next week, and the team will have its hands full working to acquire the game-changing players needed to win Buffalo’s first Super Bowl title.
“You do need difference-makers,” coach Sean McDermott said in his season-ending press conference. “In my experience, you need two or three on each side of the ball that are difference-makers like that. I’m not suggesting we have them or don’t have them. I’m just saying, what gets a team to the Super Bowl? Philosophically, for me, you look at it and you study it, you’ve got about two to three on each side of the ball that are top 1-to-3, 1-to-5 at their position. That’s real.”
The 2024 Bills went 4-4 against opponents that made the playoffs and 12-0 against everyone else. They win the games they’re supposed to win, and then they win some more. Their floor is as high as any team in the league. But they’ll need to raise their ceiling to get to the next level.
The balance, of course, is managing the salary cap in a way that allows the Bills to add such players on both sides of the ball. To that end, we’re taking our annual look at Buffalo’s roster and salary cap and highlighting some possible moves you could see over the next several weeks as the Bills look to load up for another run at the Lombardi Trophy.
Top line notes
The current Bills roster projects to be more than $10 million over the cap ahead of the start of the 2025 league year, according to websites Spotrac and OverTheCap, and that’s before knowing the details of Khalil Shakir’s contract extension. That number may sound bad, but they’ve been in worse shape in previous years. They can create cap space by releasing players, making trades, restructuring contracts, or even extending certain players.
A big difference this offseason is that the Bills don’t have nearly as many candidates to release as past years, and the explanation for that is below. Last offseason, this exercise identified several players on the roster bubble who ended up getting released, including Mitch Morse, Tre’Davious White, Jordan Poyer, Deonte Harty and Siran Neal. Names on this list in previous years included notable cuts such as Isaiah McKenzie, Cole Beasley, Daryl Williams, Star Lotulelei, John Brown and Quinton Jefferson.
This year, it’s possible we could see several contract extensions that help the Bills lock up key players while also attempting to structure their deals in a way that reduces their salary cap charge this season. It’s a tall task, but worth exploring given how many starters are entering the final year of their deal.
Roster bubble
Each header on the chart has a section with explanation in this article. As always, this list is not advocating for any player to be released, it simply tries to lay out what’s possible.
However, one line in this exercise jumps off the page. That’s what to do with Von Miller.
Miller is a future Hall of Famer who turns 36 in March. The Bills signed him in 2022 to improve their pass rush after struggling to pressure Patrick Mahomes in the game known as “13 Seconds.” Miller was coming off a championship season that featured two sacks of Joe Burrow in the Super Bowl. Miller was an impact player in Buffalo for three months, recording eight sacks in 11 games before tearing his ACL on Thanksgiving.
Unfortunately, Miller hasn’t returned to form since the injury. There have been flashes, but his play time has suffered. He didn’t start a single game in 2024 and didn’t play more than 50% of defensive snaps in any game all season. He also served a four-game suspension for violating the NFL’s Personal Conduct Policy.
The Bills simply can’t take on a cap hit near $24 million for a situational pass rusher.
If Miller wants to keep playing and take another run at a Super Bowl, perhaps he’d be willing to take a pay cut, but it would have to be sizeable. Otherwise, the Bills could open up nearly $8.5 million in cap space by releasing him. Designating him as a post-June 1 release ups the savings to more than $17 million this season, but the Bills likely won’t want to wait that long for the cap relief.
Other options
Miller is the only name on the list whose cap savings obviously outweigh his contribution. Smaller cap moves are still possible, though I think most are unlikely, and you’ll quickly see why.
- LG David Edwards: He’s second on the list because it’s ordered by potential cap savings, but that doesn’t mean he’s on the block. The offensive line played well last year as a unit, and continuity is important. His release would open $4 million in cap space … but then you need a new left guard. Can they find better play for less than that? Unlikely, unless the team thinks it can identify a starter through the draft. Both Edwards and C Connor McGovern are in the final year of their contracts and could also be seeking extensions.
- DE A.J. Epenesa: Several of the points on Edwards are also true for Epenesa — if they release him, they still need to replace him. If both Miller and Epenesa were to be released, the hole would be even bigger. You could say moving on from both players would help open the space to bring in a more fearsome pass rusher and fifth-rounder Javon Solomon’s role could increase, but their depth would be awfully thin.
- S Taylor Rapp: Are you sensing a theme, here? This is why I don’t foresee many cost-saving cuts like in years past. If they move on from Rapp, then they’d need to fill both safety positions (fellow 2024 starter Damar Hamlin is a free agent). Keeping Rapp and giving second-rounder Cole Bishop a bigger shot feels like the move. Safety could be an area to target in the draft, too.
- QB Mitch Trubisky: The Bills (and Josh Allen) seem to like Trubisky, and a $3.3 million cap hit isn’t outrageous for a backup quarterback. They also have Mike White ($1.2M) and Shane Buechele ($1.03M) around, so a roster move at the position is certainly possible.
- DT DaQuan Jones: Another starter on the list, but this one comes with an asterisk: A post-June 1 designation saves more than $5 million against the cap. The Bills need better play from their defensive line as a whole, and pressure up the middle is all the rage, but can they afford what a top 1-tech defensive tackle costs? The Bills should invest in DT in the draft … though every team is thinking that right now after watching the Eagles’ tackles dominate in the Super Bowl.
- DB Cam Lewis: The Bills’ utility knife in the defensive backfield, Lewis is listed at cornerback but versatile enough to fill in at safety and nickel, and he is also a top special teams contributor. Keeping that player around on a $2 million cap hit feels worthwhile to me.
- K Tyler Bass: This one is interesting given the up-and-down nature of Bass’ season. He nearly got himself cut around midseason, but straightened himself out down the stretch and didn’t miss a kick in the playoffs. On the season, he ranked 25th in field goal percentage (82.8) and 30th in extra point percentage (92.2). If the Bills have seen enough, they likely won’t make it a camp competition: Bass reportedly gets $2.9 million of his base salary guaranteed in March.
- CB Kaiir Elam: The 2022 first-round draft pick hasn’t earned much playing time in his first three seasons, which is why the Bills aren’t expected to pick up his fifth-year option. But his contract is fully guaranteed, which brings up some interesting scenarios. The Bills should first seek to trade him around the draft, netting a pick in return and sending his $2.6 million base salary to the acquiring team. Cutting him would subject him to waivers, where another team could claim him and take on part of his contract. But if he goes unclaimed, the Bills would be on the hook for the full cost of the deal, which might mean keeping him around for depth is the better play. Being a first-round pick could make him interesting enough for a new team to take a shot on.
Extension candidates
The Bills have several players entering the final year of their deal in 2025 that they presumably want around for the future, but the front office will have to figure out how to fit their contracts together.
“It’s a large puzzle,” GM Brandon Beane said at the NFL Combine. “We’ve got a number of guys that you could say, hey they deserved extensions. You also have a cap. … Some moves you do can acquire cap space, others can cost you, so we’re balancing all of that while having conversations. Some of the conversations haven’t started yet. You don’t want too many going at the same time. But we’ll continue those.”
Here’s a quick rundown of several players whose extensions could be on the Bills’ to-do list:
- QB Josh Allen: QB1 is locked up and well paid, but he’s still outperforming his deal. He could be due for a raise coming off an MVP season. Maybe the Bills will keep extending him in perpetuity, pushing out some of the cap hits into future years each time and trying to make the most of the years they have an elite quarterback. At bare minimum, they could convert most of the $14 million base salary he’s due this year into a signing bonus, which spreads the cap hit out over the term of the deal (up to five years) … and Beane could do the same with other top earners like LT Dion Dawkins and DT Ed Oliver.
- RB James Cook: He earned a sizeable raise on his rookie contract and already put his stake in the ground publicly, clamoring for $15 million a year. That may be too rich for the Bills, but it’s hard to blame Cook for trying to cash in on his 18-touchdown season knowing how quickly things can drop off for running backs. A deal will likely come down to structure. Will the sides be able to agree to bonuses that get Cook paid, while spreading out the cap charge and providing the flexibility on the back end of the contract? Keep in mind that NFL contracts are not guaranteed like hockey and baseball — the base salary in the final years of the deal could inflate the average value, but if it’s not guaranteed, the team could release Cook down the road without paying out the full reported value of the deal. (I’ll also note that if the contract situation were to deteriorate, trading Cook opens over $5 million in cap space this season.)
- DE Greg Rousseau: An extension candidate entering his fifth-year option, Rousseau has shown flashes of Pro Bowl play, but only flashes. He needs to dominate more consistently. Would the addition of a premier pass rusher help Rousseau’s productivity? Doubling up on defensive linemen in the 2021 draft already backfired when Boogie Basham busted, but the Bills can still make Rousseau happen. His fifth-year option is set to pay him more than $13 million this year. Can an extension pay him that much (or more) in a signing bonus right now and actually lower this year’s cap hit?
- WR Khalil Shakir: The Bills already extended Shakir before this article published. Good on them for doing so; he would’ve gotten paid in free agency if the Bills hadn’t paid him.
- CB Christian Benford: Here’s another extension candidate entering final year of deal, and he’s one the Bills ought to lock up. The sixth-rounder has played very well and is one of Beane’s biggest draft steals. Elam didn’t work out, but the Bills found a starter 160 picks later.
- LB Terrel Bernard: Yet another extension candidate entering the final year of his rookie deal. He’s well-liked and I can’t imagine the team wouldn’t want to keep him around. I am curious how the Bills view their future at linebacker, but extending TB gives them some security at the position no matter what route they choose.
- More candidates: Connor McGovern‘s move to center seemed to go well, and he’s also entering the final year of his deal. Ditto for LG David Edwards, who was discussed above. LB Baylon Spector, DE A.J. Epenesa and QB Mitch Trubisky are also entering the final year of their deals.
Some of these moves will need to happen prior to the open of the league year on March 12 to get the Bills under the cap. Other negotiations could play out prior to or during training camp.
“Just because we don’t get an extension done now or before the start of the league year, doesn’t mean we won’t,” Beane said. “You guys have seen us do them in the summer as well.”
Things that make you go hmm 🤔
A few other notes from a look around the Bills cap situation:
- TE Dawson Knox‘s contract looks bad from the Bills’ end, with cap hits over $14 million this year and $17 million next year. Can they get him to restructure again and take another pay cut? McDermott was absolutely effusive in his praise from Knox at the end of the season, reaching levels I’m not sure I’ve heard from him before. That makes a trade feel unlikely, though doing so after June 1 would open up a good amount of cap space.
- WR Curtis Samuel didn’t get integrated into the office as quickly as anyone hoped. His cap hit over $9 million is a lot for a player who ranked ninth on the team in receiving yards. However, the reason he’s not atop the cap bubble list is because nearly all of this year’s contract is guaranteed money. It’s likely that he’ll be back, unless the Bills find a trade partner.
- LB Matt Milano has two years left on his deal and is a stellar player when healthy. The Bills love him … but they’d love him more if he was able to appear in more than nine regular season games the past two years combined. He turns 31 in July. I think the Bills want to squeeze everything they can get out of the fan favorite and are banking on the fact that the last time his was healthy, he was named All-Pro. I’m compelled to note that releasing him with a post-June 1 designation opens nearly $10 million in cap space, but a restructure is probably more likely if they have an issue with his cap hit.
Dates to watch
These moves could start happening fast: The 2025 league year and free agency signing period begin at 4 p.m. Wednesday, March 12, and teams need to be under the cap by then. Additionally, the NFL’s “negotiation period” – known to fans as the “legal tampering” window – beings at noon Monday, March 10.
The Bills need to make a combination of moves just to get under the cap, let alone make room for a big time playmaker. Expect a flurry of activity. Be sure to check back on WIVB.com for the latest Bills news throughout the offseason.