Hopefully you listened to my fantasy advice in Week 1 for the Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets matchup.
Bills running backs Devin Singletary and Zack Moss didn’t see much opportunity, minus an off-script touchdown pass to Moss.
Staying away from Bills running backs would be one piece of advice I’ll carryover from Week 1, to Week 2, where the Bills face the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium.
All players will be followed by the percentage of leagues they’re being started in, as of Friday afternoon.
Bills start ’em:
WR – John Brown (46.8% started)
In 2019, Brown caught 14 passes on 20 targets for 220 yards and three touchdowns in two games against the Dolphins.
Now, of course, there are significant differences in the Bills-Dolphins matchups from last year. The Dolphins put a lot of money into their defense, headlined by star cornerback Byron Jones. The Bills brought in Stefon Diggs, who’s likely to lead the team in targets in 2020.
Your inclination may be, “well this isn’t the same Dolphins secondary.” You’d be right, but the Dolphins ran more man coverage in the NFL last season, other than the New England Patriots and Detroit Lions.
However, it was Brown, not Diggs, who led the Bills with 10 targets in Week 1 against the Jets. For Brown to get into your starting lineup as a WR2 or a FLEX option, he needs to see at least six or seven targets a game.
With the Bills showing a commitment to throwing the football early in the season, Brown should see that baseline.
Start Brown over: CeeDee Lamb, Melvin Gordon, Darius Slayton, Parris Campbell, Mark Ingram
QB – Josh Allen (78.8% started)
Allen could be a league winner for fantasy owners in 2020. If you drafted Allen near his average draft position, near the top of the seventh round, you couldn’t have been happier than 30-plus points in all fantasy formats against the Jets.
Cam Newton did not light the Dolphins up through the air in Week 1, but he did on the ground. Newton had 15 carries for 75 yards and two touchdowns. Of the 15 rushing attempts, 14 were designed runs.
Allen was second in the NFL in Week 1 with six designed quarterback runs.
On top of the likelihood of Allen designed runs, Allen has seen tons of success running against the Dolphins. Of Allen’s 1,198 career rushing yards, 318 are in his four matchups with Miami at nearly 11 yards per-carry.
Start Allen over: Everyone, except Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes
Dolphins start ’em:
TE – Mike Gesicki (17.4% started)
Gesicki continues to see an increased opportunity in the Miami passing game. Wide receiver Albert Wilson opted out for the 2020 season in the summer and now DeVante Parker is dealing with a hamstring injury.
Parker is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game. If he does not play, it’ll be Preston Williams and Isaiah Ford leading the way on the outside with Gesicki left to eat up the middle of the field.
With Bills linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano being ruled out for Sunday’s game, Gesicki should have an easier time finding space.
Start Gesicki over: Hayden Hurst, Tyler Higbee, Evan Engram, Chris Herndon, Rob Gronkowski
Bills sit ’em:
RB – Devin Singletary (59.6% started)
RB – Zack Moss (19.4% started)
For the second week in a row, I’d advise to stay away from the Bills backfield. Both Singletary and Moss weren’t complete duds against the Jets, but their ceilings were limited.
Singletary saw 14 touches, while Moss had 12. A near 50-50 split will make it tough to start either.
If I had to start one of the two, I’d start Moss, who was given a couple of goal line carries that he failed to convert on.
There are worse options, but it may take an injury for me to make either Singletary or Moss a must-start.
Start over Singletary/Moss: David Montgomery, James White, Robby Anderson, Antonio Gibson, Corey Davis
Dolphins sit ’em:
RB – Jordan Howard (11.4% started)
Like the Bills backfield, there isn’t enough touches for one individual to warrant a fantasy start, even in deep leagues, but with Miami there are three hands in the cookie jar.
In Week 1 against the Patriots, their snap count at running back was:
– Myles Gaskin: 39 snaps
– Matt Breida: 14 snaps
– Jordan Howard: 9 snaps
– Patrick Laird: 4 snaps
Added to the unknown of who will be on the field is the Bills defense, one of the worst fantasy matchups for an opposing running back.
The Jets’ running backs combined for 14 carries and 46 yards with Josh Adams adding a garbage time touchdown. If you’re starting a Dolphins running back, your best hope for Jordan Howard is likely a garbage time touchdown.
Start over Howard: Frank Gore, Darrel Williams, Hunter Renfrow, Jerick McKinnon, Chase Edmonds