The Buffalo Bills will play the Baltimore Ravens at home at Highmark Stadium in the Divisional round.
The Bills have won 11 of their last 12 meaningful games, while the Ravens have won 8 of their last 10. This is a high-profile matchup between two of the best offenses in the league and two of the best quarterbacks.
The Bills are home underdogs in this one, with the Ravens favored by 1.5 points. The last time these teams met was Week 4 in Baltimore. The Ravens won that matchup, 35-10. Baltimore ran for 271 yards, with Derrick Henry accounting for 199.
The Ravens finished the regular season as league leaders in both yards per game and rushing yards per game.
Buffalo will need to execute its game plan to advance in the postseason. Here are three keys to a Bills win vs. the Ravens:
Limit explosive runs
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The Ravens led the league in the regular season in rushes over 10 yards with 89 such plays. They had 13 more than the second-most. They did this while facing stacked boxes at the second-highest rate in the NFL.
Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson are threats for big plays on the ground at any moment. The Bills witnessed it firsthand in Week 4 when Henry took his first touch 87 yards for a touchdown. Jackson also scored a rushing touchdown that game while averaging nine yards per carry.
If the Bills do a better job taking away big runs in the Divisional round than in Week 4, they’ll have a much better chance at winning.
Stay steady in pass protection
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Much like the matchup against the Denver Broncos last week, the Bills offensive line will be facing another top-tier pass rush. While the Broncos led the league in sacks in the regular season, the Ravens were second.
The Ravens posted 54 sacks despite blitzing at the seventh-lowest rate in the NFL (20.5%). Unless Baltimore changes their tendencies and blitzes more, expect to see some good battles in the trenches between an elite Bills offensive line and a productive Ravens defensive line.
If the Bills continue to pass protect the way that they have been, they won’t have a problem. In last week’s win over Denver, they allowed just one sack and five total pressures.
Win the time of possession
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In the Wild Card win over the Broncos, the Bills dominated the time of possession. They had the ball for over 41 minutes.
The Bills were moving the ball effectively and making timely stops on defense. In turn, this kept Bo Nix and the Denver offense on the sideline for more than two-thirds of the game.
This type of ball domination would surely help in the Divisional round. Jackson and Henry can’t cause headaches for the defense while on the sideline.
Last week was a masterful offensive plan by Joe Brady that both chewed up the clock and put points on the board. If they can maintain long, sustainable drives, they have a good chance at advancing in the playoffs.