What slots should we look at trades?
The Buffalo Bills like to trade up in the NFL Draft, and they proved it once again by pulling it off during Thursday night’s first round. With picks in the second and third rounds, Buffalo has moved all over the board in those two rounds in the past. So what can we expect?
The biggest swing Buffalo could take is trading both of their Day 2 picks to move up in the second round and nab a player they really covet. They don’t have any first-round players still left on their board, per general manager Brandon Beane, but if enough of their second-round players are off the board, we could see a trade up.
According to the Jimmy Johnson trade value chart, pick 57 is worth 330 points and pick 89 is worth 145 points. Together, that equals 475 points, which could get the Bills all the way up to pick 43. On the Pats Pulpit chart, the combined 141.67 points is worth the 42nd overall pick.
Without a fourth-round pick, a clean mid-size trade up is seemingly off the table unless they include a future pick. Pick 168 plus pick 57 would only get them up two or three spots.
If the Bills wanted to move into the high 40s or low 50s, they would need to trade the second- and third-round picks and get back something in return. A trade up to 50, for example, would leave Buffalo 75 points over on the Jimmy Johnson chart, so the Kansas City Chiefs could send a fourth-rounder back to Buffalo.
Pick announcer Kyle Brandt has advocated publicly for Brandon Beane not to trade up too far in the third round so he can make it to Vegas on time. The lack of a fourth-round pick will help you here, Kyle.
If Buffalo keeps their current third-round selection (89), they could package with their 168th overall selection in the fifth round to move up to the 84th selection. Not exactly a big swing. Adding their next pick in the sixth round would get them up a few more spots to pick 81.
If I had to guess, if Beane does indeed make some trades on Friday night, he will trade down in the second round of this deep class for positions he needs; guard, running back, tight end, wide receiver, even linebacker or safety. He could then use whatever picks he gets to trade up in the third round and get to players in the first 80 picks or so.
A hypothetical trade back from 57 to 67 would net him a fourth-round pick, which he could then use to trade up from 89 to pick 80ish.